Dean's Kids +
If some of the early straw polls on college campuses are to be listened to, Obama is the hands-down favorite among the 18-22 crowd.
There was a point back in ’03 when Howard Dean appeared to have sealed up the Democratic nomination. Before his Iowa meltdown, he had more money than everyone else, and also had every motivated, anti-war college kid on his side. Obama has these advantages, without the temperament to cause him to yell at Iowan farmers a few weeks before the caucuses.
All of those Dean kids are supporting Obama this time around. None of them will jump ship to Edwards—Edwards was there last time. None of them will now support the pro-war Hillary. Obama has Dean’s base, and he’ll likely have a lot more. Add a few million African-Americans, Midwesterners who would never have voted for a Northeastern doctor, and a few million more anti-war voters (a bit larger anti-war crowd this time around), and it’s hard to see how Obama won’t outdo Dean’s pre-primary performance.
The early signs are already pretty encouraging--Barack continues his climb in the polls against Hillary. Now if only we could get those college kids to actually vote, we'd be set.