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Where Have You Gone, Peter Lynch?


By Kim Miller - Posted on 05 December 2008

Peter Lynch has always been, and still remains, one of my favorite investment gurus.  His book Beating the Street was published in 1993, the same year I entered the investment profession.  

I am the first to admit that what we're experiencing in today's markets is unprecedented; whether it changes investing forever or not remains to be seen.  However, some fundamentals have not changed.  First, investing in companies that produce goods or services that people want to buy - and in return the companies make a healthy profit - has not changed.  Second, the current financial mess we're in was caused by the packaging of B-paper, variable rate mortgages, then selling those packages to the investing public and institutions: extremely esoteric and untested investment vehicles.  These were pushed into the investment world by investment banks eager to promote something new and "sexy." (One of those investment banks was Goldman Sachs, which was run at that time by Hank Paulson, but I digress.)  The mortgage crisis makes me return to Peter Lynch's "Peter's Principle #3: Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon."  I believe this even more today than I did fifteen years ago.  

If we return to the basic ideas of investing, and look at the industries that would expect to make profits during an Obama administration, we can find some ideas to illustrate with the crayon of common sense.

Materials:  If infrastructure turns out to truly be the key focus in Obama's administration, then that would lead to higher demand for raw materials to build the infrastructure.

Industrials: Again, infrastructure build-out would certainly utilize some private sector contractors.  Combine that fact with alternative energy being a focus and a case could be made for investment in industrial firms.

Health Care: Unlike the Clinton health care plan which hurt the sector tremendously, Obama's plan of increased coverage through affordable health care insurance could mean higher volumes for health care and pharmaceuticals.  Plus, new FDA leadership and government grants could boost biotechnology firms.

Consumer Staples: One of the election factors that weighed on my decision to vote for Obama was his plan to limit farm subsidies.

From his website: "'Too many family farmers are being squeezed as big agribusiness takes up larger shares of federal subsidies, takes up more market share, manipulates prices and contracts, makes it harder for family farmers to control how they run their own farms,' Obama said.  He said his plan is strong because it was put together almost exclusively from the feedback he and his campaign got from rural residents."  The website goes on to say that farmers believe that caps on farm subsidies would create a level playing field because too much of the subsidies are going to big corporations that are not really involved in farming.  

What does this have to do with investing in consumer staples?  I would argue that lowering farm subsidies could lower food and grain prices, and that any fiscal stimulus that helps low- to middle-income families could boost profits for consumer staples companies.  

As I cautiously invest my long-term money next year, these are the industries that I will be watching closely, crayon in hand. 

 

RFO MOVING FORWARD

December 5, 2008

 

Greetings RFO Leadership:

 

In response to the   The Future of RFO” November 30, 2008

Fellow Republicans letter, my answer is absolutely yes—ready, willing and able!

On November 27, 2008, I posted a blog on the following two sites:


http://www.republicansforobama.org/?q=node/4636

                                    &

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/ernestrayedwardwalker/gGxtyM

 

I read the following blog the Obama for America web page that stated:

 

“For the first time in a long time, we have the chance to build a new majority of not just Democrats, but Independents and Republicans who've lost faith in their Washington leaders but want to believe again – who desperately want something new.”

 

There are many voices that are waiting for the promised ‘olive branch” of a new bipartisan focused government of action; I am thankful for the ‘twig’ of good faith so far received from our President-elect’s transition team.

 

I did some math.  I added 9% and 46% = 55% and divided it by 2, to  equaling a more conservative accurate 27% of Left, Right, Independent  Republicans that voted for President-Elect Barack, this is greater the than 9% core that I read about in the November 30, 2008 letter.  This election win was not a vote of Party as much as it represented a vote for change in the way our USA government was doing business!

 

The Republicans For Obama 2008 is a movement that served as a voice supporting Republican people that believed our country needed to vote for a reform change.  In both parties, remember, neither party-backed Poster Candidates won for their ultimate party committees.  Check the measurement of the statistics!

 

By force choice both parties’ committees regrouped and were forced to bandwagon the winning candidate ticket in their party that rallied the most people, and guided them through their primaries successfully.   The election was not a party-state decision initially; it was an underdog super bowl playoff election ‘a/k/a. the people’s choice election, both ‘second guess’ long shots candidates won!  Yes, indeed there were millions seeking new leadership, as a few good-old Democrats are quietly try to stealing the people’s 2008 election victory.

 

For example, how could the President-Elect Obama and his Team, assign/appoint Former President Clinton (As the Democratic old Machine edge for absolutes control of the presidency by, making it be known publicly that Former President Clinton would consider an appointment.) without the appointment of Senator McCain or, at least someone respected and endorsed by the Republicans For Obama public voice leadership representatives to head a Cabinet Caucus Review Team.  The President-Obama and Team has the obligation of showing that none of the votes of the people will be taken for granted.

 

To appoint one our Former President of expertise is to offer appointments to all Former Presidents or/and Candidates for President to official post in his administration to allow a bipartisan fair representation.  Without this happening is to ignore a responsible balance of power appointment and is disastrous to the 2009 goal of uniting the fundamental principles of a United States of America (USA).  I trust that President-Elect Obama and his Team will see and know that this (the thrust of a pro Clinton Democratic machine) is a party centered persuasion attempt to spear the air with a posture for a democratic dominance, rather than to foster the reform of the government, and a new found framework of unity in managing our administrative-legislative body of government.  Party first rather than the administrative government filtering a dual party voice first for imperative changes would reflect the image of the tail wagging the dog.

 

The independent Democrat and Republican population represented between 20-25% of our voting population that turned out strongly on Election Day; it is possible that it a higher percentage.  Republicans joined their democratic independent counterparts at the same risk as, one visible Democratic Senator who was bold enough to be public about it; voted for change across party lines.  There were many closet cases of Democratic and Republican leaders and citizens crossing the party lines that were not independents!

 

The Advanced 21ST Century citizens of the United States of America today are looking to our President-Elect for an overhaul and adjustment of our check and balance infrastructural model, operational interactions, and the policies and procedures that are essential to the upgrading of the standard antiquated Administration boilerplate model of the presidential administrative body just to save to save time, Change mean facilitating an overhaul facilitated through a Nonpartisan Organizational Development Expert Team of Specialists.

 

However, the Democratic Party sponsored the victorious candidate of the electoral 2008 win and by all means desires the honor and reward of leading the decision-making process in its proper perspective.  I trust in their establishing and setting up their interpretation of a facilitating a bipartisan sensitive government, they will responsibly yield to the President-Elect and the people’s voices of all the people that elected this new machine of change.  I believe they will continue to earn the respect and the confidence of those that did not vote for the Obama Team and respect him as indeed being a President of all the people.

 

Leaders and Experts, change must not only be a change in the type of appointments, political right, left, or central wing.  Orientation or management style of the personnel experts within our Presidential Cabinet in not the primary point of focus and must not be used as a smoky mirror diversion or Band-Aid for an actual bipartisan review caucus of our USA crises within the Presidential Cabinet.

 

We must address the real issues, going beyond appointing or retaining a few Republican leaders and dealing with the model and the conversion process in place to expedite a unified bill before the situation changes is a real issue.  ‘One president at of time’ is a humble, respectful position as well as fact that our President-Elect stated.  I’m curious of what the Democratic Chairperson of 110th United States Congress

Communication is with his colleague and our President Bush team and who did he support during the primary of the 2008 election?  President-Elect Obama like the 111th United States Congress must wait until 2009. 

 

The USA President-Elect must be sworn in before he can exercise utilization of an administration in place according to the constitution of the USA to engage in responsible 111th congressional interaction. Our President-Elect must avoid speak before his political watch unless it is through President Bush for crises intervention purposes.

 

President-Elect you have thus far done well by not being sub comes to the suggestions leaked by the few 20Th Century Democrat demigods in an attempt to hijack the 2008 election.  The Neo-con-Republican successfully did dominate the faith-base group after President Bush won a majority vote of conciliation from the USA voting public.  The election win was misunderstood as a popular party vote rather than a USA vote. The party advisors allowed President Bush, after his election, to falsely believe that he had in his grips un-inflated chips that was of ‘good oles GOP impressive win’ quality.

 

No one is asking for a bipartisan coalition government at this time; this was never an offer on the table during this 2008 election and, is very different from a bipartisan sensitive government which was a platform item placed on the table by both candidates.

 

President-Elect Obama, it’s the Model, not the Style of the Cabinet that needs changing for an expediency of sound results.  With the installation of a buffer zone unit that has a component that can interact with the bipartisan interties of our Congresses, as well as, facilitate bipartisan review sessions between The Board and The Cabinet this would nurture unity and eliminate congressional gridlock would be a solution drive installation. 

 

President-Elect Obama’s the people of change including the Republican For Change and other, more so than just the good ole LOL diehards the Democrats that won the 2008 elections. Let’s face the facts, after the election-hindsight, both committees heard the voices of the people and they are now as you are reading this letter rethinking seriously their party infrastructures to harmonize with the people.

 

I agree with the principle to the victor goes the spoilage, the spoilage meaning only, having the opportunity of reforming the Presidential Administrations, scalpel as a cutting tool only please.  President-Elect Obama must lead the rainbow coalition of voters in their quest to do business by establishing a 21ST Century Centralized Bipartisan Review Caucus to give opinions on the infrastructural development, new green, crises intervention on domestic and foreign affairs, and regional stimulus directives to facilitate preventive guidance through our Governors for a collective evaluation and assessment of the required need of an appropriate input of the conversion process of their perspective states to be clustered into the operational unit  of the Cabinet and Board’s filtering process.  A ‘review entity’ will foresee the stymies of implementation and expedite legislative action.

 

I write this correspondence to avoid hindsight, and encourage foresight.   Will the leading Republicans  name by the Republicans For Obama, that took a risk to walk on the same water Senator Obama walked on, to verbally endorse change, be honored and accept the responsibility of stepping up to the plate?   Will you assist the RFO leader to aid in setting the barometer after the January 2009 inauguration?  Even if it only to be a part of a balanced review Bipartisan Caucus in the President’s Cabinet, to serve as a balance to the ‘voices of the people’ will allow the participation of all USA citizens including Obama democratic and republican supporters.  Millions voted for what was the closest platform of representation of the concepts and the principles that they believed our country needed to establish advancement and unity.

 

RFO Leadership, you have done well.  You were USA sensitive first, and Party Second.    Yes, it is time to hear the people and convert this web page to be proactive to participate in, measure, and make beneficial reviews through and in Unisom with Republican experts appointed within our 2009 administration.  RFO must continue to give the people that are supportive Republicans that wish to be on-going voices within our community; this includes segment of our young and older voters that rallied behind our President-Elect Obama.  RFO must continue to serve as a voice of the citizens that believed in Obama’s vision of change in the government: we were an instrumental part of placing him and we are a part of the team in office.  We are a part of the spoilage group.  We have experts that have qualifying expertise that can help build an advanced United States of America; they are ready, willing and able to report to duty. 

 

Yes, there are many Republican that make under $25000 per year that are Republican based on the fundamental truth that, ‘America must be about business first, for everyone.’    Being a Republican as a concept, must not be misunderstood, and should never be synonymous to Capitalist.  Let build of the people, by the people, and for the people a Check and Balance in the USA advanced governmental system to provide opportunities to all Americans woven into the USA fabrics of a nation.

 

RFO Leadership, count me in, I’m ready to build.  President-Elect Obama and Team, we voted and supported you because we are ready to build and advance the United States of America.

God Bless America!

 

Sincerely

E. RayE. Walker

Ernest RayEdward Walker

 

 

This article written by Walker was what we all were trying to say in a graceful manner with out sounding like we completely left our own party to vote for Obama. In a heart beat if the republican party shows true unity under Obama, and puts the people first and their needs, and can give us a uniter like Obama------we would probaly quickly return to support a republican candidate in the future. But, our party has not been pro-gressive and not have work biparteson for a very long time now! It's had to be their way or the high way, or we will put forth fillibusters to get our own way! This kind of thinking must stop and good hard debateing an working together must take place to pull america back together. We take a step back and we watch how the republican politicians will come together in the years to come with the Demacrates to work for us, and not divide and fight like cats and dogs. In the past both partys was quielty of this. This is the republicans chance more than the demacrates to show unity,bipartensonship and the fact they care more for the people than their party or any party. If they cannot do this, and advance us some real leader ship in the years to come, most of us republicans will not return to the party! we don't want flash in the pants candidates who excite the relilgouse base only handed to us! Those times are gone and dead! If all they can hand us is uneducated people who have no unity power, or international knowledge or can only excite the base, and not the rest the people like Sarah Palin, then the party is clearly doomed for many years to come!

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