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The Holes in the Polls
There are two wild cards in this election that the pollsters are unable to deal with.
The Bradley Factor
Named for former L A Mayor Tom Bradley who ran for Governor of California in 1982. Polls showed him way ahead but he lost. The general interpretation is that people who were polled didn't want to sound racist and so told pollsters that they were voting for Bradley, but that on election day they voted against him.
The Likely Voter Factor
Polls reflecting the views of "likely voters" are usually considered more accurate than polls reflecting the views of registered voters. A "likely voter" is determined by the polling organization based on a set of variables such as voting history (e.g. "Did you vote in the last Pressidential Election?"), race, age, education, etc (older, white, college graduates are seen as more likely to go to the polls than younger, black, non-college-grads).
However, in this race, it is quite possible that there will an upsurge in young voters and black voters. If so, the "likely voter" numbers will be off the mark as a predictor.
What does all this mean? We know even less than we think we know about the outcome of the election.
My bad.
Actually, you are dead on on both accounts. We just don't know. Hopefully, the Bradley Effect will be limited. And we just don't know about the first-time voters. But with enthusiasm up for Dems and down for Reps, first-time voters are likely to vote in record numbers, imho.
I think it's called the Bradley Effect (not Factor). Keep in mind that the McCain ticket includes a minority candidate, not just the Obama ticket. While a decent number of men say they'll vote w/Palin on the ticket, it's possible many won't, out of sexism. Especially because of McCain's age and history of recurring cancer.
Cheney/Random Vajayjay 2008
McCain/Palin Deathwatch, September 12 '08: McCain presently has a (partially complimentary) 40% chance of winning the election.I think another consideration is voter enthusiasm. I find it very hard to accept the idea that many of the hundreds of thousands of people who've turned up at Obama rallies and speeches intend to stay home on election day. Some of them waited on lines a mile long (Oregon), in the hot sun, to hear Obama speak for 30 min.s
McCain/Palin still don't have anywhere near the turnout that he does.
Also, there were some extremely "White" states that voted for Obama during the primaries. That probably augurs good prospects.
Cheney/Random Vajayjay 2008
McCain/Palin Deathwatch, September 12 '08: McCain presently has a (partially complimentary) 40% chance of winning the election.I kinda wish that I had gone to see Obama when he was in Portland. That would have been cool (and good for the kids, too!)
Ah well.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, & wiser people so full of doubts.
-- Bertrand Russel
I see what you mean. I too would have enjoyed that. And they say Portland, and Oregon in general, are nice areas, no?
Cheney/Random Vajayjay 2008
McCain/Palin Deathwatch, September 12 '08: McCain presently has a (partially complimentary) 40% chance of winning the election.I think that Oregon is a great area, but then I'm biased.
Portland is nice enough -- a bit liberal for my tastes overall but you know? That's really not so bad.
Most of the state outside Portland is actually pretty conservative.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, & wiser people so full of doubts.
-- Bertrand Russel
Yeah, quite liberal. Didn't know that the rest of the state was conservative. Learn something new each day.
Cheney/Random Vajayjay 2008
McCain/Palin Deathwatch, September 12 '08: McCain presently has a (partially complimentary) 40% chance of winning the election.There is also another factor to be considered here. The polls are generally close, and it is possible that most of the "racists" could already be accounted for in the McCain numbers. You know, people who just say they favor McCain without specifics. Those specifics would be that they are against Obama because of his skin color.
Here's another group as yet unaccounted for: Halfricans. Many of the people who self-identify as "Other", rather than Black or White, are Halfricans, like Obama (I'm one of these). It's possible that many of them will vote for Obama. Yeah, that's a big guess LOL.
Cheney/Random Vajayjay 2008
McCain/Palin Deathwatch, September 12 '08: McCain presently has a (partially complimentary) 40% chance of winning the election.