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2008 U.S. Senate Elections
As of August 23, here are the seats up for election, and their status as far as is known now:
Alabama: Sessions (R) I vs Figures (D). Safe seat for GOP
Alaska: Stevens (R) I vs Begich (D). Competitive, Begich slightly ahead
Arkansas: Pryor (D) I. No serious opposition. Safe for Dems
Colorado: M. Udall (D) vs Schaffer (R). Allard's (R) seat. Very close
Delaware: Biden (D) I vs O'Donnell (R). Biden by state law can run for reelection for the seat. Safe for the Dems (Let's hope Biden does not have to actually occupy it).
Georgia: Chambliss (R) I vs Martin. Chambliss ahead comfortably
Idaho: Risch (R) vs LaRocco (D). Larry Craig's seat. Safe for GOP
Illinois: Durbin (D) I vs LaGrange (R). Safe for Dems
Iowa: Harkin (D) I vs Reed (R). Harkin ahead comfortably
Kansas: Roberts (R) I vs Slattery (D). Safe for GOP
Kentucky: McConnell (R) I vs Luinsford (D). McConnell ahead
Louisiana: Landrieu (D) I vs Kennedy (R). Landrieu slightly ahead; competitive race
Maine: Collins (R) I vs Allen (D). Close but Collins leading
Massachusetts: Kerry (D) I. No real GOP challanger
Michigan: Levin (D) I vs Hoogendyk (R). Safe for Dems
Minnesota: Coleman (R) I vs Franken (D). Coleman leading
Mississippi: Cochran (R) I vs Fleming (D). Safe for GOP--- Wicker (R) I vs Musgrove (D). This is Trent Lott's old seat. This race is very close. Musgrove is a popular former governor
Montana: Baucus (D) I vs Kelleher (R). Baucus ahead
Nebraska: Johanns (R) vs Kleeb (D). Chuck Hagel's seat. Johanns ahead
New Hampshire: Sununu (R) I vs Shaheen (D). Very competitive race
New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) I vs Zimmer (R). Lautenberg ahead
New Mexico: T. Udall (D) vs Pierce (R). This is Dominici's seat. Very close
North Carolina: Dole (R) I vs Hagan (D). Tossup right now
Oklahoma: Inhofe (R) I vs Rice. Safe for GOP
Oregon: Smith (R) I vs Merkley (D). Very close
Rhode Island: Reed (D) I vs Tingle (R). Safe for Dems
South Carolina: Graham (R) I vs Conley (D). Safe for GOP
South Dakota: Johnson (D) I vs Dykstra (R). Johnson ahead, but health concerns an unknown
Tennessee: Alexander (R) I vs Tuke (D). Safe for GOP
Texas: Cornyn (R) I vs Noriega (D). Cornyn leading comfortably
Virginia: Warner (D) vs Gilmore (R). Retiring Warner's (R) old seat. Warner (D) ahead
West Virginia: Rockefeller (D) I vs Wolfe (R). Rockefeller ahead. May be some backlash against Rockefeller for supporting Obama against Hillary Clinton
Wyoming: Barrasso (R) I vs Carter (D). Safe for GOP--- Enzi (R) I vs Rothfuss (D). Safe for GOP
Notes: I=incumbent. Many of these races have minor party candidates running, but in none of these (as near as I can tell) are these minor candidates expected to have a significant impact on the outcome.
As near as I can tell, Suzi, the Dems are going to pick up somewhere between 4 and 7 seats. I don't think they will get the filibuster-proof majority of 60 that they are looking for!
There is at least one other seat that will be up in 2009: either Obama's or McCain's. Hope it's Obama's!
It looks like the Democrats will have 56, maybe 57 seats in the Senate after the elections, which I will be happy with speaking as a Democrat. A filibuster-proof majority would be nice but let's be realistic here, I would prefer for the minority party in the Senate, whomever that may be, to be able to exercise full Senate rights including the filibuster option. Plus I was worried about the Democrats' ability to hold on to either house because of their low approval ratings, even lower than Bush's. But it looks like they will perform well anyway. Plus it looks like they will get around nine pickups in the House of Representatives following the 2006 elections, having 242 seats there.
Source: Electoral-vote.com
Yikes!
Kim/KJS
The problems we face will not be solved by the minds that created them.
Thanks wc. Between being busy here at RFO, trying to do a little housecleaning, and having a 9 and a 3 year old for most of the day, I was too lazy to go through it.
Personally, I think filibusters are stupid anyway. Everyone say what you have to say, then vote. :-)
The most likely seat changes are these:
Virginia: Warner (D) will likely win John Warner's seat. Both of the Udall cousins will likely win their races in Colorado and New Mexico (both retiring GOP seats). Stevens in Alaska is in trouble, and Begich will likely prevail. Ronnie Musgrove, the former democratic governor, has a good shot at Trent Lott's former seat. And whether or not Elizabeth Dole survives depends on the margin in the presidential race in North Carolina. If Obama takes NC, or loses close, Dole is likely history.
I still plan on voting for Smith, but I find his ads trying to link himself to Obama and Kerry to be kinda funny. At least they are positive, though.
He has made some negative ads against his opponent which are kind of specious. It makes me wonder if he really knows which voters he wants to vote for him.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, & wiser people so full of doubts.
-- Bertrand Russel
Smith's fate could depend of what Obama's final margin in Oregon. Even though Gordon Smith has tried to align himself with Obama, if Obama's margin is large enough, Smith will probably go down.
I dunno, we're a pretty independent bunch here in Oregon.
And it would be sad not to have at least one token Republican in statewide office.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, & wiser people so full of doubts.
-- Bertrand Russel
After Smith's support of the bailout, I'm not sure whether I will vote for him. I still think that he's relatively moderate and that Merkley is way too liberal, but I'm just not so sure now.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, & wiser people so full of doubts.
-- Bertrand Russel
I agree; Dole needs to be sent packing. What has she done for NC? Nothing. She doesn't come here. She doesn't know our issues. She votes party line on all votes. She's useless. I'd rather have someone from the other party working for us rather than someone from our party having a social gathering with her hubbie's friends at our expense.
Update for August 31:
New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) has pulled ahead of Sununu (R). It appears the Senate is becoming less and less of an "Old Boys Club."
Louisiana: Because of the hurricane, the race between Landrieu (D) and Kennedy (R) is even more up in the air. If there is considerable damage in the city of New Orleans, that could negatively impact Landrieu's chances of retaining her seat.
Overall, New Orleans make it through Gustav with little to no damage... which was a huge blessing. I have to say as a person who has lived in Louisiana for my entire life, it was refreshing to see someone finally stand up and fight for the citizens of our state the way Landrieu did. She'd still get my vote!
"Stevens in Alaska is in trouble, and Begich will likely prevail."
Ok, I'll admit to not following the Stevens saga at all, other than I think he has been indicted for failing to disclose home improvements that were made for him gratis and lying about it (right?)
So, is the fact that this race is even close an "innocent until proven guilty" issue or is Stevens riding Palin's coat tails? I know, I can look it all up, but I figured I'd inquire here first ;)
How it stands now.
Sept. 29: Senate Race Chart
Obama/Biden 2008
9/29: Kay Hagan now has her largest lead yet in North Carolina's Senate race.
Kay Hagan 46%
Elizabeth Dole 38%
Full results here
Obama/Biden 2008
Updates for 9/29; Senate race polls:
AK--- Begich (D) 49% Stevens (R) I 45%
CO-- M. Udall (D) 47% Schaffer (R) 42% incumbent GOP Allard retiring
LA--- Landrieu (D) I 54% Kennedy (R) 40% only Dem seat thought to be in any jeopardy
NH--- Shaheen (D) 46% Sununu (R) I 44%
NM--- T. Udall (D) 56% Pearce (R) 40% incumbent GOP Dominici retiring
NC--- Hagan (D) 45% Dole (R) I 42%
OR--- Merkley (D) 45% Smith (R) I 41%
VA--- Warner (D) 60% Gilmore (R) 36% incumbent GOP John Warner retiring
MS-- Wicker (R) I 48% Musgrove (D) 43%
KY--- McConnell (R) I 45% Lunsford (D) 44%
ME-- Collins (R) I 55% Allen (D) 41%
MN-- Coleman (R) I 49% Franken (D) 45%
TX-- Cornyn (R) I 48% Noriega (D) 37%
Remainder of races appear to be non-competitive. Net gain of 7 seats for Dems based on latest polling.
Source: electoral-vote.com
The possibility that Democrats will build 60-seat Senate majority is looking increasing plausible, with new polls showing a powerful surge for the party’s candidates in Minnesota, Kentucky and other states. It takes 60 votes to pass anything through the Senate. - Link
Obama/Biden 2008
The Kentucky race is particularly interesting, since Minoroty leader Mitch McConnell should be way ahead. In fact, McConnell is locked in a fight for his political life. When all is said and done, McConnell will probably survive, and the Dems will probably have something like 58 seats in the new Senate.
Another interseting race is in Minnesota, where incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, who is really a New Yorker, is trying to fend off comedian Al Franken, a Minnesota native. This one could go down to the wire, but could have been even more interesting had former Governor Jesse Ventura not decided to forgo entering this race.
Another one to watch is in North Carolina, where incumbent Elizabeth Dole is fighting for her political life against Democrat Hagan. Whoever winds this (and Hagan has pulled ahead in the polls) it will not change the gender makeup of the Senate.
Thanks, that will give me something to look out for when researching polls.
In NC, Dole voted against the bailout, and Hagan says she would have voted against the bailout. So its a draw.
I'm also watching NH with Sununu and Shaheen. Since Oct. 1 Shaheen is ahead 50% to 45%. Sununu voted for the bailout and Shaheen said she would have voted against the bailout. This will be interesting how this plays out in the next polls. I will keep an eye out.
Obama/Biden 2008
In regard to the North Carolina Senate race, top GOP strategists have "thrown in the towel." They have conceded that Elizabeth Dole will lose her seat.
Mississippi is also very interesting. Thad Cochran, the incumbent republican, looks like will coast to reelection. However, the other Mississippi seat, where incumbent GOP Roger Wicker is battling popular Democratic former governor Ronny Musgrove, could be a nail biter. Wicker was appointed to the seat by Gov. Haley Barbour. This was Trent Lott's old seat. Wicker is ahead in the latest surveys, but Musgrove is within striking distance.
Good call wcolin, I can see now why you said that about Dole. The GOP knows the numbers are against them.
New poll today for period Oct 4-5
North Carolina: Hagan 49%, Dole 40% (1,202 LVs)
Poll notes: Kay Hagan continues to hold a commanding lead over Elizabeth Dole. She’s up double digits among independent voters and is winning in almost every region of the state.
Obama/Biden 2008
Misty,
Thanks loads for keeping us all up to date on the latest polls and trends in this election season.
Looking beyond 2008, the GOP in 2010 will target a number of Dem Senate seats; two in particular: Ben Nelson's seat in red Nebraska, and Bill Nelson's seat in Florida.
If Obama wins in Florida, it could help Bill Nelson retain his seat. And so far the GOP has not been able to come up with a strong candidate to challange him. Bill Nelson is from the "Space Coast" of Florida, and he rode on the space shuttle.
Ben Nelson in Nebraska will have to fight very hard to keep his seat, and you would think the GOP could come up with a formidable candidate to challange him (former Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Tom Osborne comes to mind here).
Survey/USA data collected: 10/04/2008 - 10/05/2008
New Hampshire: Shaheen 48%, Sununu 40%
Poll notes: Libertarian Ken Blevens appearing to take just enough votes from Sununu to complicate his bid to hold the seat. Shaheen leads by 17 points among women, trumps everything.
Obama/Biden 2008
That New Hampshire seat is one of the Dem's targeted seats, but probably their number one target is McConnell's seat in Kentucky. It's going to be close. We will see what happens.
Mississippi Race
Musgrove, although a democrat, will not support Senator Obama. Musgrove is expected to benefit from the high new voter registrations motivated to action by the Obama campaign.
Yet, Out of anger, some Mississippi Democrats will be voting for Republican candidate, Wicker, who was appointed by the governor, after Senator Trent Lott resigned. (Another story)
Musgrove cancelled a Townhall Meeting in Gulfport when it was exposed on the internet that people were going to go and ask him why he doesn't support another Democrat.
Republican Wicker is expected to win.
Although Democrats need all the seats they can get, some democrats here on the Coast are voting on 'an issue' and not for a candidate.
Yay! I'm not alone!
Not alone, Carly. I went straight Democratic ticket for the first time ever when I early voted on Friday.
Except, for city mayor as that is a non-partisan position and I don't know who was the D and who was the R.
10/10/2008: The day I early-voted for Barack Obama!
Wicker is indeed ahead, but it is not a slam dunk. Musgrove still has a chance.
But that could be the kiss of death in the Magnolia State.
Here is the way it stands as of today:
GOP has basically conceded 4 seats to the Dems: Virginia, North Carolina (although it's close there now), Colorado, and New Mexico. Four other seats that really worry GOP strategists right now are: Sununu's in New Hampshire, Gordon's in Oregon, Stevens' in Alaska (Palin might help there), and McConnell's in Kentucky. One other seat that has gotten a lot closer is Saxby Chambliss' seat in Georgia (Dems still remember his shenanigans in 2002). And what they considered their lone chance for a pickup (Landrieu's seat in Louisiana) looks now to be solid Democratic.
Somewhere between a 4 and 8 seat pickup looks increasingly likely for the Dems.
<LA--- Landrieu (D) I 54% Kennedy (R) 40% only Dem seat thought to be in any jeopardy >
Here's an interesting bit of news concerning this race. I heard on the news yesterday that the Louisiana Rep Party is considering "sanctions" of some sort against 12 Republican officials because they have endorsed Landrieu.
Sen. Landrieu really came through for Louisiana following Katrina. Plus, John Kennedy is appearing more and more to be an opportunist. (This hurts me to say, because I have known him since we were kids). I've made my decision to vote for Landrieu.
The fact that my state party is making threats against those who support a candidate of their choice is frightening to me.
Business as usual. Dems look to be pretty close to getting that 60-seat filibuster-proof majority. Of course, what they will do about Leiberman is anyone's guess at this time.
I wish there was a chance Saxby Chambliss could lose... sigh...
Anyway, a lot of the neocons fear democratic control. There are a lot of idiot democrats too, but it's but it's time for the right wing extremist to learn some patience for people who like to let our differences make America what it is. They have almost taken on the role of judging others out of God's hands. They abuse the religion and are willing to trade intelligence for theocratic control of the masses with those "folksy" people like Palin.
Saxby's lost my vote, at least.
Chambliss, according to the latest polls, is only 3-4 percentage points ahead. An incumbent should be more like 8 points ahead at least at this time in the election cycle. So Chambliss could end up losing (I wouldn't bet my house on that, however).
The race in Texas has also tightened considerably. Cornyn was considered a shoo-in at the start of the campaign, but now Noriega has cut drastically into his support. This could also be an interesting one to watch on election night.
Another poll had them even.