An Edwards Bounce for Obama in Kentucky?
An Edwards Bounce for Obama in Kentucky?
Now that Senator John Edwards has endorsed Barack Obama for President, most pundits have looked at the long-term effect of his endorsement on white voters who initially supported Edwards but have since moved to support Clinton over the past few months. However, the central question on the importance of Edwards’ endorsement may be demonstrated as quickly as next Tuesday’s primary in Kentucky.
Kentucky is a close neighbor to Edwards’ state of North Carolina. Kentucky’s demographics, which have striking similarities to West Virginia (race, age, median income and education background beyond high school), enables us to have a first look at any electoral benefit that Edwards’ endorsement may have in a contest that Edwards’ probably would have won if he were still in the race.
The bottom line: If Edwards’ endorsement can decrease the 28 point lead in half by Tuesday, from 58 – 30 to 52 – 38, then Edwards’ endorsement will be worth the three months of waiting for it. If not, Edwards’ endorsement will be about as effective as Ted Kennedy’s. We’ll see Tuesday night…
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I think a lot will depend on
I think the Edward's
I agree with Suzi. The
I agree with Suzi. The reasons I fear we won't see much movement from Edwards endorsement:
1. Edwards carried 7% of the vote in WV, and I think realistically that's the absolute most we could expect his endorsement to benefit Obama in Kentucky.
2. Hillary likely received a West Virginia bounce in Kentucky that could counter any bounce Obama would receive from the endorsement.
3. Edwards's endorsement is getting limited publicity in Kentucky. The election news there is focused on whether or not Obama is Christian, and Bill Clinton's visits to thet state.
< The election news there is
< The election news there is focused on whether or not Obama is Christian, and Bill Clinton's visits to thet state>
Are you serious? Is he a Christian is getting news play? How are we supposed to overcome that mentality?
Well the articles,
Well the articles, ostensibly, are reminding readers that he "claims to be" a Christian. But as you know, these stories often simply serve to underscore and perpetuate the skepticism about his beliefs.
I saw a poll last week that 60% of Americans don't know what faith Obama is, and over 10% still think he's Muslim.
That falls in the same
I don't think it's so easy
I don't think it's so easy to even generally quantify what Edwards' impact will be in Kentucky. But I hope that Edwards and Obama will campaign hard in Kentucky. Kentucky should not be blown off the way W. Virginia was (although that seemed tactical).
Good news for Clinton Supporters: Post-Bosnia, Hillary now has up to a .007% chance of winning the dem nomination if she keeps her mouth shut until December.
I agree Sarg...both that W
Do we have any members of
Do we have any members of RFO in Kentucky? Do they truly support Obama and if they do, we need to urge them to write letters to the public and push the facts. We really need Obama and Edwards and others to stump hard in Kentucky.
I really fear the red-neck Bubba vote and frankly, from my point of view, the GOP ads that are running against Obama and Michelle are embarrassingly ignorant. My guess is that with the KY population, it probably plays really well. Now that the media is not playing Bill Clinton so closely, God only knows what racist flags Bill is playing. Everybody that wishes for Obama to win, pray and pray hard.
MaggieCat
I've been looking at the
I've been looking at the comment boards in Kentucky, and I can't find any evidence that there are *any* Obama supporters in Kentucky (though obviously there are...there's a group at my.barackobama.com), let alone any cross-party supporters.